Hey, Keith here.
This past weekend I fished a small farm pond where my soon-to-be son-in-law lives.
There was nothing special about the plan, just working the bank before the heat set in.
Except the heat never really showed up.
The wind was out of the north and 70° at seven a.m.
Down here in southeast Louisiana in August, that's not normal, that's a gift.
I worked a Lab Series Finesse Worm slowly around that pond and connected on a solid one.
But I got to thinking on the drive home.
A weather report mentioned this cool front might be one of many coming, thanks to El Niño.
So, I dug in to see what that means for the rest of the country this fall.
BEST LINKS
What I looked at this week
No more BAD crankbaits! (Anglers)
NOAA 2026 three-month outlook (NOAA)
The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts cooler fall (OutdoorHub)
Fishing fall cold fronts—Greg Hackney's tips (BassResource)
2026 fall foliage map & peak leaf color forecast (Old Farmer’s Almanac)
Deals of the week
Sportsman's Warehouse has a Frog Factory Boom Boom Frog on sale for $4.77, regularly for $10.99.
Cabela’s marked down an eight-pack of BPS River Bugs to $2.98 from $4.99.
Bass Pro Shops has an Abu Garcia Max X Spinning Reel for $23.97, regularly $29.99.
DEEP DIVE
The pond that felt like October
I made the drive out this past weekend to a small farm pond where my soon to be son-in-law lives.
Normally, an August trip down here means dealing with heat that just sits on you. Not this time.
The air was slightly cooler. I want to be clear; it wasn't cool by any real definition.
But any drop in humidity we get in southeast Louisiana in August feels like a gift.
My soon to be son-in-law's pond, quiet before the first cast.
I decided to work around the pond, throwing a Berkley finesse worm, no sliding weight.
I wanted to take it slow and let that worm sink on its own.
My plan was simple: Watch the line where it enters the water. When the line ticks, that's a fish.
The wind was out of the north. It was around 70° at seven a.m. when I started.
I worked my way around the bank, casting ahead of me down the shoreline.
About 10 minutes in, nothing. So I made a cast out toward the middle of the pond and let the worm sink slow.
Then it happened. Exactly what I planned for. The line ticked and started moving to the right.
I should have waited.
Instead, I set the hook the second I saw that line move. I connected, but the fish came up, jumped, and threw the hook right in front of me.
I watched the whole thing happen. The worm came flying out of its mouth and splashed back down.
That was enough to keep me going.
I tied on a fresh worm since the first one was torn up and kept casting toward the middle of the pond.
About 20 minutes later, the line moved again.
This time I gave it two extra seconds before I set the hook. Connected on a solid fish.
I fought that bass for about three minutes. It jumped twice. I finally wore it down and dragged it up onto the bank.
It weighed 5.5 pounds.
This 5.5-pound farm pond bass came on a Berkley finesse worm fished with no weight.
I slid it back into the water and fished for another hour or so with no luck.
On the drive, a weather report mentioned that the cool front we'd just gotten might be one of many more on the way this fall. The reason? El Niño.
I did a little research on each region's forecast. Below is the forecast for your neck of the woods.
What El Niño means for your state this fall
The South
Louisiana: More frequent cold fronts than a typical fall, each one dropping water temps a little further. Good news for anyone working ponds and bayous.
Texas: A wetter, stormier fall is likely, especially across the southern and eastern parts of the state. After a few dry years, rising lake levels could open up new bank access.
Mississippi: Near to below normal temperatures with above normal rainfall. Expect the shad migration to kick off earlier as water starts cooling in stages.
Alabama: Cooler and wetter than average as the southern storm track stays active through November.
Georgia: Near to below normal temps paired with above normal rain. Watch river and reservoir levels, rising water could put fish into new cover.
Florida: A wetter fall, especially central and south Florida, with temps closer to normal. The extended rain could stretch the good bite window later into the year.
Tennessee: Sitting right under the amplified storm track this fall. More rain, cooler stretches than usual, good for river and reservoir bank fishing.
Arkansas: A more active, wetter pattern with near to below normal temps, which should keep fish shallow later into the season.
The Midwest and Great Lakes
Missouri: Sits on the edge of the pattern. Near normal temps and rain overall, with a slightly better shot at fronts in the southern part of the state.
Illinois: Warmer and drier than normal under the building ridge, expect the fall pattern to arrive later than usual.
Ohio: Same story—warmer and drier, which could delay the fall turnover on lakes and ponds.
Minnesota: Firmly on the warm, dry side of this pattern. A milder fall likely means a later freeze up.
The Northeast
New York: Near normal temps and precipitation. El Niño's fingerprint isn't strong here this fall.
Pennsylvania: Similar story, close to normal on both temperature and rainfall.
The West
California: One of the wetter spots in the entire country this fall, especially southern and central California. This could be the year reservoir levels finally start climbing back.
Washington and Oregon: Sitting on the drier side of the pattern, with temps near to slightly above normal.
Colorado: A mixed signal overall, near normal, with a chance for extra moisture along the Front Range.
